How to measure no effect?
Part I: Towards a new measure of chronic toxicity in ecotoxicology. Introduction and workshop results.
Nelly van der Hoeven1*, Frank Noppert 2 and Annegaaike Leopold3
- Theoretical Biology Section, Institute of Evolutionary and Ecological Sciences, Leiden University P.O. Box 9516, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands
- BKH Consulting Engineers, P.O. Box 5094, 2600 GB Delft, The Netherlands
present adress: Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, D.G. Public Works and Water Management, Directorate Oost-Nederland, P.O. box 9070, 6800 ED Arhnem, The Netherlands
- NOTOX, P.O. Box 3476, 5203 DL 's Hertogenbosch, The Netherlands
* Corresponding Author:
Nelly van der Hoeven,
2332 AA Leiden,
tel.: (+)31-(0)71-5315011; fax: (+)31-(0)842-116988;
The NOEC (No Observed Effect Concentration) is widely used as summary statistic of ecotoxicity tests. In setting standards for risk evaluation, it is normally applied as if it were an estimate of the NEC (No Effect Concentration). Recently, a workshop was organized in the Netherlands to evaluate the merits of the NOEC and those of potential alternatives in
A short introduction on the NOEC and a survey of the results of that workshop are given.
Two parametric alternatives for the NOEC were discussed:
No clear-cut preference for either of these two alternatives emerged. The ECx was considered attractive because this parameter is expected to be less model dependent than the parNEC approach and the method is well established. The parNEC was found attractive because it embraces the concept of No Effect.
- The ECx, i.e. the estimated concentration causing an effect of x% compared to the control.
- The parNEC, i.e. the estimate of the NEC in a parametric threshold model of the concentration-response relationship.
The main conclusions of the workshop were:
- NOEC values should always be accompanied by the minimum observable difference under the given test conditions. The value of the observed parameter in the NOEC compared to the control should also be given.
- The NOEC should (in due time) be replaced by another measure for (almost) no effect.
- Research is needed to choose between the two potential alternatives for the NOEC: an ECx value and a parametric NEC estimate. The following two areas of research were recommended:
A re-evaluation of old ecotoxicity databases, involving the determining of the NOEC, EC5, EC10 and NEC estimate for these datasets and comparing their values.
Evaluation of several ECx and NEC models with the aim of determining the accuracy and the model dependence of these estimates using a large set of computer simulated data.
- If an ECx value is chosen, the preferred value of x would be 5 or 10%.
keywords: NOEC, NEC, ECx, test guidelines, chronic toxicity
Environmetrics 8: 241-248, 1997
Selection from publications of Nelly van der
Is it safe to pool the Blank Control Data with the Solvent Control data? N. van der Hoeven,
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 73:1480-1483, 2010
Multi-criteria decision analysis of test endpoints for detecting the effects of endocrine active substances in fish full life cycle tests.
M. Crane, M. Gross, P. Matthiessen, G.T. Ankley, S. Axford, P. Bjerregaard, R. Brown, P. Chapman, M. Dorgeloh, M. Galay-Burgos, J. Green, C. Hazlerigg, J. Janssen, K. Lorenzen, J. Parrott, H. Rufli, C. Schäfers, M. Seki, H.C. Stolzenberg, N. van der Hoeven, D. Vethaak, IJ. Winfield, S. Zok & J. Wheeler
Integr Environ Assess Manag., 6: 378-389, 2010
Exposure analysis of bisphenol A in surface water systems in North America and Europe. (PMID:19746705)
G.M. Klecka, C.A. Staples, K.E. Clark, N. van der Hoeven, D.E. Thomas & S.G. Hentges
Environmental Science & Technology, 43: 6145-6150, 2009
The Minimum Significant Difference at the NOEC calculated with a non-parametric test.
Hoeven, N. van der,
In: Proceedings of the 30th Anniversary Meeting of the Netherlands Society of Toxicology, june 2009. p. 122
Calculation of the Minimum Significant Difference at the NOEC using a non-parametric test.
Hoeven, N. van der,
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 70: 61-66, 2008
Does bisphenol a induce superfeminization in Marisa cornuarietis?
Part I: Intra- and inter-laboratory variability in test endpoints. Forbes, V.E., H. Selck, A. Palmqvist, J. Aufderheide, R. Warbritton, N. Pounds, R. Thompson, N. van der Hoeven & N. Caspers
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 66: 309-318, 2007
Does bisphenol A induce superfeminization in Marisa cornuarietis?
Part II: Toxicity test results and requirements for statistical
power analyses. Forbes, V.E., J. Aufderheide, R. Warbritton, N. van der Hoeven & N. Caspers
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 66: 319-325, 2007
Statistical issues in fish life-cycle tests with many endpoints.
Hoeven, N. van der & D.R. Dietrich,
Abstract and poster for SETAC Europe, May 2005, Lille
The probability to select the correct model using likelihood-ratio based criteria in choosing between two nested models of which the more extended one is true.
Hoeven, N. van der,
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 135: 477-486, 2005
Effects of bisphenol A on adult fathead minnow (P. promelas) gonadal histology: a 42-day exposure study.
Dietrich, D.R., J. Wolf, A.R. Brown, J.E. Caunter, N. van der Hoeven & U. Friederich,
Abstract and poster for the Cluster workshop on Ecological relevance of chemically induced endocrine disruption in wildlife. University of Exeter, july 2004.
The Netherlands working group on Statistics and Ecotoxicology: Statistics and Models for Risk Assessment.
Hoeven, N. van der,
In: Proceedings of the Jubilee Annual Meeting of the Netherlands Society of Toxicology, june 2004. p. 114
Current issues in statistics and models for Ecotoxicological Risk Assessment.
Hoeven, N. van der,
Acta Biotheoretica 52: 201-217, 2004
Balancing statistics and ecology: on the lumping of experimental data for model selection.
Hoeven, N. van der, L. Hemerik & P.A. Jansen. In: T.A.C. Reydon & L. Hemerik (Eds): Current themes in Theoretical Biology: A Dutch Perspective. pp 233-265. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 2004.
Using marine bioassays to classify the toxicity of Dutch harbour sediments. Stronkhorst, J., C. Schipper, J. Brils, M. Dubbeldam, J. Postma & N. van der Hoeven
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 22: 1535-1547, 2003
What can egg distributions of solitary parasitoids tell us about the information the parasitoid has and uses for its oviposition decisions? Hemerik, L.,N. van der Hoeven &
J. J.M. van Alphen, Acta Biotheoretica, 50: 167-188, 2002
Statistical tests and power analysis for three in-vivo bioassays
to determine the quality of marine sediments. Hoeven, N. van der, B. J. Kater &
J. F. Pieters, Environmetrics 13: 281-293, 2002
Significance tables for the exact variance test for the Poisson
distribution with alternative underdispersion. N. van der Hoeven & L Hemerik,
Environmental and Ecological Statistics 9: 201-213, 2002
Estimating the 5-percentile of the species sensitivity
distribution without any assumptions about the distribution. N. van der Hoeven,
Ecotoxicology 10: 25-34, 2001
Power analysis for the NOEC: What is the probability to detect
small toxic effects on three different species using the appropriate standardized test
protocols? N. van der Hoeven, Ecotoxicology 7: 355-361, 1998
The acute toxicity of selected alkylphenols on young and adult
Daphnia magna. A.A.M. Gerritsen, N. van der Hoeven & A. Pielaat,
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety 39: 227-232. 1998
The ecotoxicity and the biodegradability of lactic acid, alkyl
lactate esters and lactic acid salts. C.T. Bowmer, R.N. Hooftman, A.O. Hanstveit,
P.W.M. Venderbosch & N. van der Hoeven, Chemosphere 37:
How to measure no effect? Part I: Towards a new measure of
chronic toxicity in ecotoxicology. Introduction and workshop results. N. van der Hoeven,
F. Noppert & A. Leopold, Environmetrics 8: 241-248, 1997
How to measure no effect? Part III: Statistical aspects of
NOEC, ECx and NEC estimates. N. van der Hoeven, Environmetrics 8: 255-261, 1997
The effect of chlorpyrifos on individuals of Daphnia
pulex in laboratory and field. N. van der Hoeven & A.A.M. Gerritsen,
Environm. Toxicol. Chem. 16: 2438-2447, 1997
A model based on soil structural aspects describing the fate of
genetically modified bacteria in soil. N. van der Hoeven & J.D. van Elsas,
Ecological Modelling 89: 161-173, 1996
Competition between cohorts of juvenile Daphnia
magna. E.L. Enserink, N. van der Hoeven, M. Smith, M. van der Klis & M.A.
van der Gaag, Archiv für Hydrobiologie 136: 433-454, 1996
Reliability of quantitative toxicity test results: from
experimental control to data processing. Enserink, E.L. & N. van der Hoeven,
The Science of the Total Environment, suppl. 1993, Proceedings of the Second
European Conference on Ecotoxicology, eds. W. Slooff & H. de Kruijf, p. 699-704,
LC50 estimates and their confidence intervals. The case that
only one test concentration has partial effect. N. van der Hoeven, Water
Research 25: 401-408, 1991
Effects of toxicants on individuals and populations of Daphnia,
a simulation study. N. van der Hoeven, Comparative Biochemistry and
Physiology 100C: 283-286, 1991
Effect of 3,4-dichloroaniline and metavanadate on Daphnia
populations. N. van der Hoeven, Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety
20: 53-70, 1990
Salmonella test: Relation between mutagenicity and number of
revertant colonies. N. van der Hoeven, S.A.L.M. Kooijman & W.K. de Raat,
Mutation Research 234: 289-302, 1990
Superparasitism as an ESS: to reject or not to reject, that is
the question. N. van der Hoeven & L. Hemerik, J. of Theoretical Biology
146: 467-482, 1990
Population consequences of a physiological model for individual
development S.A.L.M. Kooijman, N. van der Hoeven & D.C. van der Werf,
Functional Ecology 3: 325-336, 1989
Oscillations in Daphnia populations. N. van der
Hoeven, A.M. de Roos & S.A.L.M. Kooijman, Econieuws 2, 7-8,
The population dynamics of Daphnia at constant food supply: a
review, re-evaluation and analysis of experimental series from the literature. N. van
der Hoeven, Netherlands Journal of Zoology 39: 126-155, 1989
Random elements in a population model based on individual
development. N. van der Hoeven, in: Ecodynamics, Proc. Int. Workshop at Jülich,
FRG, 19-20 Oct. 1987. Eds. W. Wolff, C.J. Soeder & F.R. Drepper, pp 333-342,
Research Notes in Physics, Springer Verlag., 1988