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Multi-criteria decision analysis of test endpoints for detecting the effects of endocrine active substances in fish full life cycle tests.
M. Crane1, M. Gross, P. Matthiessen, G.T. Ankley, S. Axford, P. Bjerregaard, R. Brown, P. Chapman, M. Dorgeloh, M. Galay-Burgos, J. Green, C. Hazlerigg, J. Janssen, K. Lorenzen, J. Parrott, H. Rufli, C. Schäfers, M. Seki, H.C. Stolzenberg, N. van der Hoeven2, D. Vethaak, IJ. Winfield, S. Zok & J. Wheeler
- WCA Environment Limited, Brunel House, Volunteer Way, Faringdon, Oxfordshire, SN7 7YR, United Kingdom.
- ECOSTAT, Vondellaan 23, 2332 AA Leiden, The Netherlands
Abstract
Fish full life cycle (FFLC) tests are increasingly required in the ecotoxicological assessment of endocrine active substances. However, FFLC tests have not been internationally standardized or validated, and it is currently unclear how such tests should best be designed to provide statistically sound and ecologically relevant results. This study describes how the technique of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to elicit the views of fish ecologists, aquatic ecotoxicologists and statisticians on optimal experimental designs for assessing the effects of endocrine active chemicals on fish. In MCDA qualitative criteria (that can be valued, but not quantified) and quantitative criteria can be used in a structured decision-making process. The aim of the present application of MCDA is to present a logical means of collating both data and expert opinions on the best way to focus FFLC tests on endocrine active substances. The analyses are presented to demonstrate how MCDA can be used in this context. Each of 3 workgroups focused on 1 of 3 species: fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes), and zebrafish (Danio rerio). Test endpoints (e.g., fecundity, growth, gonadal histopathology) were scored for each species for various desirable features such as statistical power and ecological relevance, with the importance of these features determined by assigning weights to them, using a swing weighting procedure. The endpoint F1 fertilization success consistently emerged as a preferred option for all species. In addition, some endpoints scored highly in particular species, such as development of secondary sexual characteristics (fathead minnow) and sex ratio (zebrafish). Other endpoints such as hatching success ranked relatively highly and should be considered as useful endpoints to measure in tests with any of the fish species. MCDA also indicated relatively less preferred endpoints in fish life cycle tests. For example, intensive histopathology consistently ranked low, as did measurement of diagnostic biomarkers, such as vitellogenin, most likely due to the high costs of these methods or their limited ecological relevance. Life cycle tests typically do not focus on identifying toxic modes and/or mechanisms of action, but rather, single chemical concentration-response relationships for endpoints (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction) that can be translated into evaluation of risk. It is, therefore, likely to be an inefficient use of limited resources to measure these mechanism-specific endpoints in life cycle tests, unless the value of such endpoints for answering particular questions justifies their integration in specific case studies.
Integr Environ Assess Manag., 6: 378-389, 2010
Een selectie uit de publikaties van Nelly van der
Hoeven
Is it safe to pool the Blank Control Data with the Solvent Control data? N. van der Hoeven,
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 73:1480-1483, 2010
Multi-criteria decision analysis of test endpoints for detecting the effects of endocrine active substances in fish full life cycle tests.
M. Crane, M. Gross, P. Matthiessen, G.T. Ankley, S. Axford, P. Bjerregaard, R. Brown, P. Chapman, M. Dorgeloh, M. Galay-Burgos, J. Green, C. Hazlerigg, J. Janssen, K. Lorenzen, J. Parrott, H. Rufli, C. Schäfers, M. Seki, H.C. Stolzenberg, N. van der Hoeven, D. Vethaak, IJ. Winfield, S. Zok & J. Wheeler
Integr Environ Assess Manag., 6: 378-389, 2010
Exposure analysis of bisphenol A in surface water systems in North America and Europe. (PMID:19746705)
G.M. Klecka, C.A. Staples, K.E. Clark, N. van der Hoeven, D.E. Thomas & S.G. Hentges
Environmental Science & Technology, 43: 6145-6150, 2009
The Minimum Significant Difference at the NOEC calculated with a non-parametric test.
Hoeven, N. van der,
In: Proceedings of the 30th Anniversary Meeting of the Netherlands Society of Toxicology, june 2009. p. 122
Calculation of the Minimum Significant Difference at the NOEC using a non-parametric test.
Hoeven, N. van der,
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 70: 61-66, 2008
Does bisphenol a induce superfeminization in Marisa cornuarietis?
Part I: Intra- and inter-laboratory variability in test endpoints. Forbes, V.E., H. Selck, A. Palmqvist, J. Aufderheide, R. Warbritton, N. Pounds, R. Thompson, N. van der Hoeven & N. Caspers
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 66: 309-318, 2007
Does bisphenol A induce superfeminization in Marisa cornuarietis?
Part II: Toxicity test results and requirements for statistical
power analyses. Forbes, V.E., J. Aufderheide, R. Warbritton, N. van der Hoeven & N. Caspers
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety, 66: 319-325, 2007
Statistical issues in fish life-cycle tests with many endpoints.
Hoeven, N. van der & D.R. Dietrich,
Abstract and poster for SETAC Europe, May 2005, Lille
The probability to select the correct model using likelihood-ratio based criteria in choosing between two nested models of which the more extended one is true.
Hoeven, N. van der,
Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 135: 477-486, 2005
Effects of bisphenol A on adult fathead minnow (P. promelas) gonadal histology: a 42-day exposure study.
Dietrich, D.R., J. Wolf, A.R. Brown, J.E. Caunter, N. van der Hoeven & U. Friederich,
Abstract and poster for the Cluster workshop on Ecological relevance of chemically induced endocrine disruption in wildlife. University of Exeter, july 2004.
The Netherlands working group on Statistics and Ecotoxicology: Statistics and Models for Risk Assessment.
Hoeven, N. van der,
In: Proceedings of the Jubilee Annual Meeting of the Netherlands Society of Toxicology, june 2004. p. 114
Current issues in statistics and models for Ecotoxicological Risk Assessment.
Hoeven, N. van der,
Acta Biotheoretica 52: 201-217, 2004
Balancing statistics and ecology: on the lumping of experimental data for model selection.
Hoeven, N. van der, L. Hemerik & P.A. Jansen. In: T.A.C. Reydon & L. Hemerik (Eds): Current themes in Theoretical Biology: A Dutch Perspective. pp 233-265. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 2004.
Using marine bioassays to classify the toxicity of Dutch harbour sediments. Stronkhorst, J., C. Schipper, J. Brils, M. Dubbeldam, J. Postma & N. van der Hoeven
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 22: 1535-1547, 2003
What can egg distributions of solitary parasitoids tell us about the information the parasitoid has and uses for its oviposition decisions? Hemerik, L.,N. van der Hoeven &
J. J.M. van Alphen, Acta Biotheoretica, 50: 167-188, 2002
Statistical tests and power analysis for three in-vivo bioassays
to determine the quality of marine sediments. Hoeven, N. van der, B. J. Kater &
J. F. Pieters, Environmetrics 13: 281-293, 2002
Significance tables for the exact variance test for the Poisson
distribution with alternative underdispersion. N. van der Hoeven & L Hemerik,
Environmental and Ecological Statistics 9: 201-213, 2002
Estimating the 5-percentile of the species sensitivity
distribution without any assumptions about the distribution. N. van der Hoeven,
Ecotoxicology 10: 25-34, 2001
Power analysis for the NOEC: What is the probability to detect
small toxic effects on three different species using the appropriate standardized test
protocols? N. van der Hoeven, Ecotoxicology 7: 355-361, 1998
The acute toxicity of selected alkylphenols on young and adult
Daphnia magna. A.A.M. Gerritsen, N. van der Hoeven & A. Pielaat,
Ecotoxicol. Environm. Safety 39: 227-232. 1998
The ecotoxicity and the biodegradability of lactic acid, alkyl
lactate esters and lactic acid salts. C.T. Bowmer, R.N. Hooftman, A.O. Hanstveit,
P.W.M. Venderbosch & N. van der Hoeven, Chemosphere 37:
1317-1333, 1998
How to measure no effect? Part I: Towards a new measure of
chronic toxicity in ecotoxicology. Introduction and workshop results. N. van der Hoeven,
F. Noppert & A. Leopold, Environmetrics 8: 241-248, 1997
How to measure no effect? Part III: Statistical aspects of
NOEC, ECx and NEC estimates. N. van der Hoeven, Environmetrics 8: 255-261, 1997
The effect of chlorpyrifos on individuals of Daphnia
pulex in laboratory and field. N. van der Hoeven & A.A.M. Gerritsen,
Environm. Toxicol. Chem. 16: 2438-2447, 1997
A model based on soil structural aspects describing the fate of
genetically modified bacteria in soil. N. van der Hoeven & J.D. van Elsas,
Ecological Modelling 89: 161-173, 1996
Competition between cohorts of juvenile Daphnia
magna. E.L. Enserink, N. van der Hoeven, M. Smith, M. van der Klis & M.A.
van der Gaag, Archiv für Hydrobiologie 136: 433-454, 1996
Reliability of quantitative toxicity test results: from
experimental control to data processing. Enserink, E.L. & N. van der Hoeven,
The Science of the Total Environment, suppl. 1993, Proceedings of the Second
European Conference on Ecotoxicology, eds. W. Slooff & H. de Kruijf, p. 699-704,
1993
LC50 estimates and their confidence intervals. The case that
only one test concentration has partial effect. N. van der Hoeven, Water
Research 25: 401-408, 1991
Effects of toxicants on individuals and populations of Daphnia,
a simulation study. N. van der Hoeven, Comparative Biochemistry and
Physiology 100C: 283-286, 1991
Effect of 3,4-dichloroaniline and metavanadate on Daphnia
populations. N. van der Hoeven, Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety
20: 53-70, 1990
Salmonella test: Relation between mutagenicity and number of
revertant colonies. N. van der Hoeven, S.A.L.M. Kooijman & W.K. de Raat,
Mutation Research 234: 289-302, 1990
Superparasitism as an ESS: to reject or not to reject, that is
the question. N. van der Hoeven & L. Hemerik, J. of Theoretical Biology
146: 467-482, 1990
Population consequences of a physiological model for individual
development S.A.L.M. Kooijman, N. van der Hoeven & D.C. van der Werf,
Functional Ecology 3: 325-336, 1989
Oscillations in Daphnia populations. N. van der
Hoeven, A.M. de Roos & S.A.L.M. Kooijman, Econieuws 2, 7-8,
1989
The population dynamics of Daphnia at constant food supply: a
review, re-evaluation and analysis of experimental series from the literature. N. van
der Hoeven, Netherlands Journal of Zoology 39: 126-155, 1989
Random elements in a population model based on individual
development. N. van der Hoeven, in: Ecodynamics, Proc. Int. Workshop at Jülich,
FRG, 19-20 Oct. 1987. Eds. W. Wolff, C.J. Soeder & F.R. Drepper, pp 333-342,
Research Notes in Physics, Springer Verlag., 1988
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